The UK minimum wage - flying at half mast ...

As previously reported on this blog, the UK minimum wage is being cut in real terms this October, and would be 7% higher today if it had increased in line with inflation over the past 5 years.

The infographic below shows just how much the UK minimum wage needs to catch up not only with inflation, but with rates in many other comparable countries.

(We're reliably informed that if the national minimum wage (NMW) had increased at the rate of that for FTSE100 Chief Executives since 1998, it would today stand at more than £19 per hour - equivalent to a full-time salary of £39,000 a year!)


A recently published infographic by the PCS union* shows that the UK NMW lags behind comparative rates in many other nations (though the UK edges the US on 32%).

The graphic also mentions that if our minimum wage was equivalent to that in France, low paid UK workers would be earning an extra £1.95 per hour - equivalent to nearly £4,000 extra a year. (If it rose to New Zealand levels, our NMW would be £9.55 per hour - equivalent to nearly £19,000 a year for full-time work).

For the national minimum wage to reach the UK living wage of £7.45 per hour would mean the NMW being equivalent of 42% of average earnings - the same rate as in Portugal, and just below that in Australia.

It's a commonly made argument that raising the minimum wage would increase unemployment. Indeed that same argument was made the NMW was first introduced. Study after study (including this one from the US) shows that not to be the case - and there are even Tories calling for an increase in the minimum wage.


It's quite clear that the UK's low wage economy is having a drag on demand (one that loosening credit doesn't solve). Indeed, a PCS report published earlier this year - Britain needs a pay rise - showed that the real value of wages has fallen by 7%, there has been a real terms drop in consumer demand of 5% over the same period.

And the misery doesn't end there for low paid UK workers - who are also facing a real terms cut in a range of in-work benefits, including working tax credit and child tax credit - while child benefit is frozen for the third consecutive year.

If you want an economic recovery, you need more £s in people's pockets. If you want more £s in people's pockets, you have to either legislate for a higher minimum wage (as many other nations have done) or restore some trade union rights, so that workers have greater bargaining power to win better pay.

*PCS has a great series of infographics which you can see via the PCS Facebook page

EU dominos - who's next?

The chart below (from the Bank of England's Charles Bean) shows the 10-year government bond spreads for selected EU nations: Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, as well as France and the UK.



Where is Greece in this 'who's next for disaster' chart? You might ask. Well, Greece is off the chart with its 10 year bond spreads currently attracting interest at somewhere north of 26%, according to Bloomberg.

Off the chart and out of the game. It's debt is unrepayable. The question is if Greece defaults will that have a domino effect? The potential domino effect is twofold:

1. German and French banks are most exposed (see Dexia already), but some debt is held by Spanish, Italian and Portuguese banks. A default or severe 'haircut' (partial write-off) of say 80% would have an impact. These nations would then be faced with a choice: a) let a bank fail; or b) bail-out the bank with more government debt, further worsening the sovereign debt crisis
2. The second domino effect is on the bond markets, which would be spooked by a default and hike interest rates on riskier debtors - in the same way that high street banks have jacked up margins and became more cautious lenderdfollowing the credit crunch, restricting lending to businesses and damaging the economy. This could mean Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy paying more for their debt - exacerbating their debt crisis, and potentially sending them into a Greek-style death spiral.

It's worth bearing in mind that if Italy, as the third largest eurozone economy, got in trouble the whole eurozone would be at risk. It currently has 2 trillion euros of debt.

Since the Bank of England produced the above chart, Italy's bond interest rates have risen from around 4% to 6%. If that gets up to Portuguese levels, let alone Greek, then Italy is in serious risk of default. Even a 20 or 30% haircut would be deeply traumatic - crashing banks around the world, with serious domino effects.

That's why the G20 meeting in Cannes is obsessed with this issue: finance capitalism is at risk!

The credit rating agencies

Greek debt was downgraded to 'junk' status by the credit rating agencies earlier this week, and yesterday Spain was taken down a notch from AA+ to AA - but who are these credit rating agencies, and are they right?

One of the major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poors, describes itself as "a leader of financial-market intelligence", while another, Moody's, modestly says its "commitment and expertise contribute to stable, transparent and integrated financial markets, protecting the integrity of credit".

Cast your mind back however to the beginning of this crisis - when the 'credit crunch' euphemism was still being used. What happened? A large number of structured investment vehicles, special purpose vehicles and collateralised debt obligations were found to be worthless - bundled up packages of unrepayable sub-prime mortgages and the like.

Now why would banks have traded these disastrous investments? The answer lies in the credit rating agencies which rated these truly junk investments as AAA in many cases. And who pays credit rating agencies to give a rating? The selling bank. So if you're client comes to you, and pays you lots of money to give something it is trying to sell a rating, do you (a) please your client; or (b) give an honest assessment? The credit crunch answered that question, yet still the credit rating agencies deem themselves fit to tell the world what is a good investment or not.

Is the Greek economy really more risky than a bundle of sub-prime mortgages? No - though there are problems. And what about Spain, Portugal, Italy and the UK, all highly indebted? Let's look at the effect of downgrades or the threat of downgrades:

1) It makes the interest rate on loans higher
2) It deters investors from buying debt / making further loans
3) This forces further austerity measures

The immediate effect on Greece has been further calls from creditors for more 'reform' and 'austerity measures'. This means the market taking more control through privatisation and the Greek people paying with cuts to their services, pensions and benefits. Fearing it could be downgraded to 'junk' next, Portugal announced tougher austerity measures yetserday - held at gunpoint to pay for the crisis by the very people who caused the crisis.

This is the problem of the credit markets being almost entirely unregulated and totally in private hands. Gangster capitalism is thriving