Recovery? What recovery?

by Luke James

Unions reminded backslapping Tory leaders today that Britain is in the grip of the worst economic crisis in a century despite 0.6 per cent growth in the last quarter.

Tiny boosts in construction and manufacturing sector were partly behind the slight respite for the battered economy.

Smug PM David Cameron claimed on Twitter that the figures showed Britain is "on the right track" and insisted his government is "building an economy for hardworking people."

Tory Chancellor George Osborne said Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) was "better than forecast" but failed to mention that it is still 3.3 per cent below pre-recession levels.

TUC leader Frances O'Grady reminded the pair that the economy has grown half as much as they boasted it would when they cobbled together the Con-Dem coalition in 2010.

"It's a measure of how poor the economy is faring that this level of growth is being welcomed," she said.

"With workers in the midst of the longest wage squeeze since the 1870s and unemployment still over 2.5 million, it certainly doesn't feel like a recovery to many people."

Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls pointed out "this is also the slowest recovery for over 100 years" despite the fractional shift forwards.

He said Britain would need to seal 1.3 per cent growth every quarter for the next two years "simply to catch up all the ground we have lost under David Cameron and George Osborne."

Overall output in construction and manufacturing remains more than 10 per cent below pre-recession levels despite progress in the last quarter.

Manufacturing recovered by 0.4 per cent after slumping consecutively for the last six quarters and the 0.9 per cent rise in construction is eclipsed by the 1.8 per cent fall in the first quarter.

Construction union Ucatt labelled the figures "disappointing" and general secretary Steve Murphy reissued his call for "urgent" investment in infrastructure projects and social housing.

There was also a 0.6 per cent growth in the service sector but concerns were raised that companies are hoarding billions of pounds that could be invested to spark real growth.

Left Economics Advisory Panel co-ordinator Andrew Fisher said privateers have amassed the surplus, equal to 6 or 7 per cent of GDP, thanks to successive cuts to corporation tax and by slashing workers' wages.

"Companies are quite logically refusing to invest substantially in new products, services or jobs at a time when consumer demand is depressed by falling living standards," he said.

This article first appeared in the Morning Star

Tory home loan bribes 'unwise'

 
by Richard Bagley

Tory Chancellor George Osborne revealed his latest desperate "big idea" for housing today that will see more of our cash used to bribe banks into lending to people who can scrape together a mortgage deposit.

He plans to gamble £12 billion on high-risk 95 per cent loans where the state will act as a guarantor.

That means we will pick up the tab for some of the loss in case of a default.

Mr Osborne claimed following talks with construction firms that the extension of the Help to Buy scheme was "about getting behind those who aspire to own a home."

It will cover houses priced up to £600,000 and will only help those wealthy enough to save a 5 per cent deposit.

With average house prices at around £150,000 in Scotland and Wales - rising to a whopping £454,000 in London - people in the two nations would need at least £7,500 in cash to qualify for the mortgages or over £22,000 in the English capital.

The government's obsession with fuelling the housing market even drew criticism from Bank of England chief Paul Tucker.

He described the scheme as "unwise" in the long term because of fears that it will help reinflate a housing bubble that has left hundreds of thousands packed into expensive private rented accommodation.

Construction union Ucatt general secretary Steve Murphy accused Mr Osborne of "fiddling round the edges of the housing crisis.

"If the government wants to begin to solve both issues then they need to be investing and building social housing which will get skilled workers back to work and will also provide homes for the millions of people who are currently in ina
dequate accommodation."

Left Economics Advisory Panel co-ordinator Andrew Fisher ridiculed the Chancellor's announcement.

"After three years of economic failure, Osborne's great new strategy for growth is a house price bubble," said Mr Fisher.

"The Help to Buy Scheme is an admission of political failure and of the continuing fragility of UK banks.

"This is nationalising the risk and privatising the profits again - a bank bailout by stealth."
He added: "The solution is not subsidies for the big construction companies instead of the banks, but for councils to borrow and build to meet local need."

This article appears in today's Morning Star

Prince Charles must go public with tax dealings

Prem Sikka

The UK House of Commons Public Accounts Committee is examining some of the financial affairs of Prince Charles, heir to the British throne. The Committee should be concerned that the Duchy of Cornwall, Prince’s business arm, is exempt from corporation and capital gains tax. This means that the Duchy does not make any financial contribution towards the social infrastructure used by it. Its tax exemptions also give it unfair advantage over its rivals.

The Duchy of Cornwall is the remnant of a bygone feudal age. The Duchy’s estate was created in 1337 by Edward III for his son and heir, Prince Edward. It provides income for the Duke of Cornwall, always the male heir to the throne. Today, the Duchy’s estate is no longer confined to land in Cornwall. It is a sprawling conglomerate, the third largest landowner in the UK, owning 53,154 hectares of land in 24 counties, mostly in the South West of England.

The Duchy’s 2013 balance sheet shows net assets of £762 million though the market value is likely to be several billions. Its portfolio of assets includes 3,500 individual lettings, including 700 agricultural agreements, 700 residential agreements, and 1,000 commercial agreements. The Duchy owns Dartmoor Prison, the Oval cricket ground in London, a Waitrose warehouse in Milton Keynes, pubs, shops, hotels and building occupied by King’s College London. The Duchy also jointly owns a biomethane injection plant.

The Duchy directly competes with commercial organisations to trade in property, house building, holiday rentals, organic food, jam, marmalades and biscuits. Its profits are boosted by the direct use of social infrastructure funded by taxpayers in the shape of local/central government, transport, security, legal system, and education and healthcare provided to its employees. But the Duchy makes no direct financial contribution towards any of this because it is exempt from the UK corporation and capital gains tax.

The tax privileges of the Duchy are often defended by claims that it is a private estate (is the monarchy private?), or that it is a private trust for the benefit of the Duke of Cornwall, or that somehow the Duchy and the Duke merge into one.

An ongoing freedom of information case has lifted some of the legal murk surrounding the Duchy to reveal its economic substance: it is a legal person in its own right. The evidence provided by Prince Charles’s representatives showed that the Duchy enters into legal contracts in its own name. Its staff are employed by the Duchy rather than the Duke. The Duchy has sued and has been sued in its own name. It is registered for VAT and Pay As You Earn (PAYE). Employees give their consent to the Duchy to process their personal data. The Duchy is notified as the Data Controller under the Data Protection Act 1998. The Duchy has bank accounts in its own name. There have been transactions between the Duchy and Duke, clearly acknowledging that the two are separate.

Parliament has no say in how the profits are to be distributed. The Duchy’s entire income goes to Prince Charles. Between 2008 and 2013, UK workers saw a real terms cut of 6% in their pay. By contrast, Prince Charles’s income rose from to £18.7 million to £20.2 million for the same period. A large part of this came from the Duchy of Cornwall, whose contribution increased from £16.27 million in 2008 to £19.05 million in 2013.
The Duchy of Cornwall’s website states:

As The Prince already pays income tax on the Duchy’s surplus, the Duchy does not pay Corporation Tax. If the Duchy also paid Corporation Tax, The Prince would effectively be taxed twice on the same income. Only companies pay Corporation Tax; many other large organisations which are not companies pay income tax.

Inevitably, the Prince is seeking to endear himself to the people by claiming that he pays income tax, just like anyone else. But how much income tax does he pay? Page 27 of the Prince’s 2013 annual review states:

The Prince of Wales pays income tax voluntarily on the surplus of the Duchy of Cornwall, applying normal income tax rules and at the 50 per cent rate, and pays income tax on all other income and capital gains tax like any private individual. The £4.426 million includes VAT.

It is worth noting that income tax and VAT payments, which are payable by all consumers, have been lumped together to produce a higher amount. Why this obfuscation by combining direct and indirect taxes?

Any comparison of the Prince’s direct (income tax) and indirect (VAT) tax contribution with that of an ordinary citizen is difficult, but statistics provide some food for thought. The most recent government statistics show that for 2011/12, direct and indirect taxes added up to 36.6% of the income of the bottom 20% of the UK households, and averaged at 34.6% of the income of all households. The £4.426 million tax payment by the Prince amounts to 23.2% of his income.

The controversies about Prince Charles’s business dealings are unlikely to go away. The feudal arrangements do not sit easily with contemporary notions of democracy and public accountability. Insetad, we must subject all payments to any part of the monarchy to parliamentary approval and scrutiny.

This article first appeared on The Conversation website

Is the UK economy on the up?

In the 2013 Spending Round in June George Osborne said he was taking decisions to "secure the recovery". Yesterday talk of recovery increased when the IMF revised its prediction for UK growth for this year from 0.7% to 0.9%.

However the same upward adjustment in UK growth is not replicated globally. Last April the IMF was predicting 4.1% growth in 2013, now it says just 3.1% will be achieved. This may be reflected in the UK by another set of disastrous figures for manufacturing and industrial production (down 2.9% and down 2.3% respectively in the last year), and a widening of the UK's already substantial trade deficit. So much for the economic rebalancing Osborne promised in 2010 ...

The extra 0.2% growth the IMF is predicting is not much to get excited about - especially when in 2010 Osborne's newly formed Office for Budget Responsibility was predicting growth would be 2.9% this year. However, the IMF revision is among a number of positive signals about the UK economy.

Last week the Services PMI - a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector (which accounts for 75% of the UK economy) - indicated growth at its fastest rate for over 2 years. The respected and independent National Institute for Economic and Social Research predicts that growth in Q2 of 2013 will be 0.6% (while Markit suggests 0.5%).

The prospects for George Osborne therefore seem to be looking up. However, all may not be what it seems. With no let up in the decline of household income, what is supporting this stronger growth in the services sector? As Duncan Weldon shows clearly and insightfully, household income is  falling, but household spending is rising - eating into savings that recovered after the 2008 crash, but are now declining again (see graph below).

What does this mean for the sustainability of the nascent UK recovery and for households? Well, as Weldon concludes, "a falling savings ratio really is underpinning our recovery. The 'new economic model' looks increasingly like the old one". This is even more so the case with the increasingly unreality of rising house prices, underpinned by the bubble-inflating Help to Buy scheme.

The overall households savings ratio masks the reality that for many households they are not eating into their savings, but in fact sinking deeper into debt (good news for payday loan companies like Tory funders Wonga). For many people - including the 500,000 that are reliant on food banks - there is a real crisis emerging. Many are struggling to pay rents - especially with tax credit and housing benefit cuts to those in and out of work.

With pay continuing to rise below inflation, and benefits similarly capped and being cut in cash terms for hundreds of thousands of households, the recovery looks very fragile. There can be no sustainable recovery through increased consumer debt. That way paves a renewed round of loan, credit and mortgage defaults - and with the state lacking the capacity to perform the sort of bailouts that were necessary in 2008 and 2009.

The economy may well be on an upward trend at the present time and this could extend into the latter part of the year. But while economic growth in 2013 is likely to far outsrip the OBR's modest 0.6% prediction, in 2014 growth of 1.8% looks perilous, as does 2.3% in 2015.

The upturn in the UK economy is built (again) on an inflating debt bubble, and the longer it inflates the more damaging the final bang when it bursts. As the manufacturing figures show, there is no evidence of rebalancing, no prospect of a revival in workers' incomes (through pay or benefits), and no substantial investment that could at least stimulate medium term growth and create jobs (in fact unemployment remains stubbornly around 2.5 million).

So while Osborne will be cheering green shoots and patting himself on the back - most gratuitously at party conference in the autumn - the underlying problems of the UK economy remain unresolved, and any temporary respite may only be storing up greater problems for the future.

5 reasons why you can't take this government seriously on tax justice

At the G8, the Prime Minister, David Cameron, sought to make clamping down on tax havens the centrepiece of the summit. As Prem Sikka explains, the post-summit communique was 'high on vague promises, low on delivery'.

But even before the inevitable puncturing of Cameron's hubris, there were several reasons why this government cannot be taken seriously on tax justice* ...

1. Government minister says he wants the UK to be a tax haven

Last year, Cabinet Office minister Francis Maude said it was "a compliment" for the UK to be described as a tax haven, and added: "That is exactly what we are trying to do."

2. George Osborne slashing taxes for big business and the rich

If there's one hallmark of a tax haven, it's low or minimal tax rates. Corporation tax was slashed from 52% in 1979 to 33% by 1997. New Labour cut it further, to 28%, and Osborne has already driven it down to 23% - and aims to get it down to 20% by 2015. This is how he described it at the last Budget:

"A headline rate that is not just lower than our competitors, but dramatically lower.
18% lower than the US.
16% lower than Japan.
12% below France and 8% below Germany.
An advertisement for investment and jobs in Britain." 

Actually, it's an advertisement to for big business to pay less tax - undercutting both other nation's tax rates and shifting the tax burden onto the working poor (as we have previously shown). Of course, cutting the top rate of tax from 50% to 45%, also facilitated avoidance.

3. Many government ministers' wealth is based on tax avoidance and evasion

As Guardian investigations have proven in the case of Cameron's family fortune, and as Channel 4 Dispatches showed in the case of George Osborne, Andrew 'plebgate' Mitchell, and Phillip Hammond.

4. You can't collect taxes without the resources to do it - and this government is cutting resources

HM Revenue & Customs is the body tasked with collecting taxes owed, tackling evasion and clamping down on contrived avoidance schemes. Combined the tax gap (uncollected, evaded and avoided) is estimated at £120 billion ... every year.

Yet the government is slashing the resources available to HMRC - as this PCS infographic shows:

5. Treasury minister in charge of tackling avoidance and evasion is in denial

Treasury minister David Gauke seems to be in a constant state of denial and cover-up

• When MPs investigated and found senior HMRC bosses to close to business, Gauke described the claims as 'absurd'. The same committee also found HMRC was "too poorly resourced" (see above).
• He approved a plan to persecute an HMRC whistleblower who exposed the 'sweetheart deal' with Goldman Sachs
• He claims the UK tax gap is 'only £35 billion' (still substantial) when all serious estimates put it at £120 billion (see Richard Murphy's analysis here)

Of course Gauke did used to work for a legal firm that specialised in tax avoidance.

There's five reasons why this government cannot be taken seriously on tax justice. Please use the comments to add more!!

* For a serious look at tax justice, see the Tax Justice Network

G8 summit: High on vague promises, low on delivery

Prem Sikka

The G8 summit in Lough Erne was preceded by much hype and promises  about action on tax avoidance and corporate secrecy, but it has  delivered little. The leaders' communiqué commits governments to nothing more than vague promises.

The most welcome development is that the ten-point communiqué  endorses automatic exchange of information in matters relating to tax evasion, assuming that something is always classified as “tax evasion”  rather than its greyer cousin “tax avoidance”. Thus if a resident of the UK has stashed cash in a tax haven, then that jurisdiction would be obliged to inform the UK tax authorities.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published its proposals,  but the G8 has made no mention of any time scale for implementation. Neither does the communiqué say anything about how this information exchange is to be co-ordinated or enforced.

More importantly, how the UK is going to persuade its secretive Crown Dependencies to sign the exchange? How will places such as the Cayman Islands comply with this protocol when they do not levy income or corporate taxes, and thus do not have the infrastructure for collecting  data about taxes or tax avoidance vehicles?

The promise to reveal beneficial ownership of companies looks  attractive, as anonymous companies facilitate tax avoidance/evasion, money laundering and flight of capital. The communiqué states that this

"could be achieved through central registries of company beneficial ownership and basic information at national or state level. Countries should consider measures to facilitate access to company  beneficial ownership information by financial institutions and other regulated businesses. Some basic company information should be publicly accessible."

A number of things are noticeable. There is no intention to let the public know the details about ownership of companies. There is no mention of any timescale within which any reforms are to be implemented.  Maybe this absence of detail is indicative of oppositions that some  governments are likely to encounter from their local economic elites.

The US has a particular problem in that its own tax havens Delaware, Nevada and New Jersey need to be persuaded to embrace openness, something they have so far resisted. The UK will also have to do much to  get anywhere near the promise. At present foreign companies, including  those registered in secretive tax havens, can be directors of the companies registered in the UK. Shares in UK companies can be held by nominees, who may not be resident in the UK. Yet there is no commitment to introduce any legislation. The  failure of the UK to lead by example may also embolden the UK Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories to resist some of the changes.

Trusts are a key vehicle for providing secrecy and avoiding taxes. The communiqué advocates more information about them too, but not for the general public. It says that the information about them should be  accessible by law enforcement, tax administrations and other relevant authorities including, as appropriate, financial intelligence units. So the public bears the cost of tax avoidance perpetrated through trusts but will not be permitted to know the beneficiaries. Again, there is no  mention of any time scale. Once again, the UK will have much to do because there is no public record of the number of trusts, or their beneficiaries.

With tax revenues, developing countries can lift their population out of poverty. So it is welcome to note that the communiqué states that “Developing countries should have the information and capacity to collect the taxes owed them … Other countries have a duty to help them”. But, once again, there is no firm commitment to deliver any policy changes in the G8 countries.

With a daily diet of revelations about tax avoidance by giant corporations, such as Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Starbucks and eBay, there was a feeling that the G8 would start a dialogue about changing the system for taxing corporate profits. The communiqué states that “Countries should change rules that let companies shift their profits across borders to avoid taxes”, but change to what? There is no commitment and no foundations have been laid for taking the matters forwards at the next G20 or the G8 meeting even though alternative models exist.

The kindest thing that one could say about the G8 communiqué is that as a result of public anger, issues such as tax avoidance and corporate secrecy are on the political agenda. However, the summit has not delivered.

Perhaps, the expectations were too high. After all, most G8 leaders are facing declining popularity at home. The UK Prime Minister is facing dissent within the Conservative Party, the policy disagreements with  coalition partners Liberal Democrats are becoming more vocal (e.g. over benefit and tax cuts), and his popularity ratings are down. Similarly,  with intransigence by the Republican Party US President Obama can’t push through his preferred policies through the legislature. So they all  need some trophies to take home, which look and sound good but will not commit them to any firm legislative action.

Another thought is that with no representations from Africa, India, China and Brazil, the G8’s terms for ending tax avoidance or corporate secrecy may not be acceptable to the emerging economic powerhouses. So the action will move to next year’s G20 summit. As always, corporate elites will be operating behind the scenes and colonising the political  agenda. Any progress on eroding secrecy and tax avoidance is going to be slow, and that is a good reason for civil society to continue to campaign for change.

This article first appeared on The Conversation website

Price rises pile pain on struggling workers

Will Stone

Workers struggling with wage freezes and below-inflation rises were hit by higher prices for basics last month - and worse is set to come, the Office for National Statistics said.

The consumer prices index rise 0.3 points to 2.7 per cent in May.

Officials predict it will top 3 per cent over the summer.

But average earnings increased just 1.3 per cent in the year to April, meaning millions of workers have had a real-terms pay cut.

The retail price index, which includes housing costs, rose 0.2 points to 3.1 per cent.

A 22 per cent rise in air fares, the fastest increase since records began in 2001, helped push up CPI.
Overall transport prices rose by 0.4 per cent between April and May, and the cost of clothing and footwear also rose 1.2 per cent.

Furniture, carpets and garden tools also became more expensive.

Politicians, unions and economists issued a stark warning that plummeting wages are dragging Britain downwards.

Shadow Treasury minister: Catherine McKinnell MP

TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady warned: "Forty consecutive months of real wage falls means people have less to spend on the high street," leaving the economy stuck in the gutter.

Shadow Treasury minister Catherine McKinnell said that "the cost-of-living crisis is deepening," noting that because of inflation and low pay people's spending power is now £1,300 a year less on average than when the coalition came to power.

Left Economics Advisory Panel co-ordinator Andrew Fisher said: "Today's rise in inflation exacerbates the squeeze on wages being felt by workers - sending ever more into poverty and reliance on food banks.

"To tackle low pay, we need stronger trade union rights, a significant rise in the minimum wage and a credible plan to create jobs."

He urged the Labour Party to ditch support for pay freezes for low-paid public-sector workers.

Soaring inflation is also hitting people with savings hard, with none of Britain's 820 standard accounts paying enough interest to outpace tax and inflation, according to Moneyfacts.co.uk.

This article first appeared in the Morning Star